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just got home from the bar...grain of salt...
It's pretty clear to me that Smokey can take the form and act as people who arrive on the island dead. The first I remember is Echo's brother who landed dead on the island fucking with Echo. Next we see Christian, who also landed dead and finally we see the, "loop hole," when he uses Locke to convince Ben to kill Jacob. This leads me to believe that in a future episode Hugo will see the smoke monster for what he is (since he really does 6th sense it) when Smokey is trying to trick the losties. I'm sure this is where the fat boy dies.
Another interesting thought is something that I saw on one of the recap shows that has the little blurbs that pop out on the bottom of the screen. In this version of last season's finale they make a big deal that Jacob touches some of the survivors (Jack, Kate, Sawyer, Locke for sure) their flashbacks. They pointed out this touching multiple times. Lost is Lost, but this touch really seems to me like some type of future protection against Smokey, I bet we see Locke/Smokey unable to attack those that were touched. A past episode example of this would be in the episode where Echo died Smokey then turned on Locke, but mysteriously didn't fuck with him.
I can't really agree with all the Aaron/Walt back-stories playing in to the show's conclusion. It just fits in with my, "can't tie it all together," theory. The writers are in over their collective head's now and can't finish THIS seasons story lines much-less the entire series'.
I'm spent.
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